Laboratory for Financial Engineering

Psychophysiology of Risk

Traditional economic analysis based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis generally assumes that people act as perfectly rational economic agents therefore trying to maximize their expected utility. The assumption of this particular type of rationality was challenged by many investigators. They had identified a large number of biases and deviations from expected utility maximization that people exhibited when behaving as economic agents. Presence of all these biases had led to a notion of human irrationality especially as related to probabilistic judgments and letting emotions to influence the decision process. Unfortunately, just identifying deviations from rationality was not sufficient for neither describing the economic behavior of individuals no explaining the financial markets.

In our research, we build upon recent advances in cognitive sciences and neurosciences, in particular on the implications that emotion is an integral part of decision-making processes. Human rationality is viewed in broader context, taking into account the evolutionary processes that were shaping human brain for millions of years in order to improve the chances for survival. We are trying to understand how the human "stone age brains" have adapted to the modern environment, especially to such a complex one as financial marketplace.

In this research project, we employ various methods of contemporary experimental psychology to study individuals involved in financial decision-making processes. We work to establish a link between physiological responses and aspects of information processing that accompany decision making. Financial context gives us a benefit of an experimental environment, where the inputs and probabilities (risks) are well-defined and often easy to quantify. Our subjects are finance professionals that are highly trained individuals and who are very well motivated thus allowing us to avoid the controversy surrounding many of the studies in traditional experimental economics.

Relevant Publications and Preprints:

  • Andrew W. Lo and Dmitry V. Repin, 2002, "The Psychophysiology of Real-Time Financial Risk Processing", Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 14, 323-339.
  • Andrew W. Lo, 1999, "The Three P's of Total Risk Management", Financial Analysts Journal 55, 13-26.